2020

The Future of Web Development

@poshaughnessy

Future Tech team logo

Back... to the future

Back to the Future

Mobile, 5 years ago

iOS and Android in 2010

iPhone 3 (iPhone OS 3.1), Nexus One (Android 2.1 Eclair)

Tablets, 5 years ago

Motion Computing J3400

Motion Computing J3400 (no iPads til April 2010)

Smartwatches, 5 years ago

Samsung S9110

Samsung S9110

Browsers, 5 years ago

IE 8

JavaScript frameworks, 5 years ago

JS frameworks in 2010

Ember still SproutCore, no Backbone, no React...

Moore's Law
Law of Accelerating Returns

“Kurzweil believes a 20th century’s worth of progress happened between 2000 & 2014...
and another 20th century’s worth of progress will happen by 2021”

waitbutwhy.com

The World in 2020...

“Japan’s PM plans 2020 Robot Olympics”

telegraph.co.uk

“Japan plans a moon base by 2020, built by robots”

popsci.com

“Russia to launch industrial mining on the Moon in 2020”

pravda.ru

“7 companies to launch driverless cars by 2020”

mojomotors.com

“Large Hadron Collider upgrade could unveil true nature of time and possible existence of other universes”

onislam.net

“London's Crossrail scheduled to be in full service”

Wikipedia

The Web in 2020?

“Predicting the future is easy... getting it right is the hard part.”

1958 flying car vision

Wisdom of (Expert) Crowds

Crowd-sourcing on Twitter
  1. 1. Mobile
  2. 2. Graphics
  3. 3. Network
  4. 4. Interfaces

“90% of the world’s population over the age of six will own a mobile phone.”

Mobile Marketing

“Smartphones will account for 2 out of every 3 mobile connections”

GSMA Intelligence

Web & Native will continue to blur

Android L recents view

“Android L Blurs The Lines Between Web And App”

The Best of the Web...

What if I told you you don't need to install an app to use it?
  1. 1. Mobile
  2. 2. Graphics
  3. 3. Network
  4. 4. Interfaces

Fast UIs by default

ember.js issue on GitHub for 'Implement Glimmer Engine'

Glimmer next-gen rendering engine

WebGL no longer just for demos

Tweet by @AdamTheNagy about interactive 3d content

Better, faster 3D graphics

WebGL 2 preview

WebGL 2 preview

Complex systems, simple UIs

Google Now
  1. 1. Mobile
  2. 2. Graphics
  3. 3. Network
  4. 4. Interfaces

5G will be “rolled out”

3G 4G 5G
Deployment 2004-05 2006-10 2020
Bandwidth 2 mbps 200 mbps > 1gbps

raconteur.net

...But web sites are getting slower!

Top Ecommerce sites load times

Radware report via Markus Kobler

Further rise of video & streaming

Tweet by @maxw3st about talk and video becoming ubiquitous

HTTPS everywhere

Tweet by @jasonbeee about HTTPS not being optional Tweet by @karthikvj about free HTTPS/SSL
  1. 1. Mobile
  2. 2. Graphics
  3. 3. Network
  4. 4. Interfaces
Stupid smartwatch

Don't expect smart watches to be the new smart phones

Pictures under Glass
“Pictures Under Glass sacrifices all the tactile richness of working with our hands” - Bret Victor

Virtual Reality could make inroads

Tweet by @tiny_m about VR

(After the usual Hype Curve)

VR & AR merging

Magic Leap

"Holographic" UIs

HoloLens

Physical & Digital blurring

Smart Rope

Tangram Smart Rope

“The number of smart devices is going to explode. We need a system that lets anyone interact with any device at any time.”

Google's Physical Web project

Back down to Earth...

Tweet by @dknights about JS frameworks - cropped Tweet by @laurabygaslight about it getting more confusing

How can the Web keep up?

How can we keep up?

The Browser as a low-level API

The Extensible Web Manfiesto

extensiblewebmanifesto.org

Browsers experimenting early

MozVR.com

Mozilla and Google are working on Web VR

Use the Open Source Force

Octobiwan - by GitHub

GitHub

Modularisation & reusability

Web components Polymer React.js

Web Components · Polymer · React Components

JavaScript will get better...

About EcmaScript 2015

Photo by @andrewsmatt

But you can use $your-fave-lang

Tweet by @mahemoff about JS compilation Tweet by @MikeRogers0 about a Swift framework

AI tools could help

Ember.js clippy

And you never know...?

Tweet by @EeneyFay about ColdFusion resurgence

Final Thought:

We can influence the future!